Miami is no stranger to gentrification. From the city’s Little Haiti to Miami Beach, neighborhoods are experiencing a shift in character as luxury high-rises, high-end shops, and glass office towers spring up.
But this isn’t just your typical urban gentrification. In Miami, it’s being driven by climate change.
The $1 billion Magic City Innovation District, currently planned for Little Haiti, is just one example. This real estate development brings a host of issues, raising property values and taxes, pushing out local businesses, and changing the character and culture of the community.
It’s why some media and urban scholars have labeled what’s happening here “climate gentrification.”
The idea is that investors and homebuyers are moving from coastal areas into poorer, higher-elevation neighborhoods like Little Haiti in anticipation of worsening climate change risks, such as sea-level rise.
But are Miami’s homebuyers and investors really motivated by climate change? A research team at the University of Miami surveyed Miami-Dade County residents and found a more nuanced picture of what is actually pushing homeowners to higher ground.
Mostly, they found that the shift away from the coasts is fueled by costs. Flood risk plays a role through the rising cost of flood insurance. Still, much of the shift is plain old gentrification—developers looking for cheaper land and spinning it as a more sustainable choice to win over public officials and future residents.
Rather than bottom-up pressure built on residents’ alarm about sea-level rise, the research team found a continuation of the usual rational investment decisions. Present-day “climate gentrification” in Miami is primarily determined and driven by capitalist investment opportunities—relatively lower prices and greater expected returns—which are the characteristics of the traditional gentrification process.
The research found that neither homebuyers nor real estate agents are driving this process today in Miami. Instead, developers are using the concept of climate risk to market properties in more elevated areas and are working in tandem with policymakers to facilitate urban redevelopment.
Miami is very different from other global cities because its wealthy homebuyers and second-home buyers exhibit fewer concerns about rising sea levels and climate change.
A large percentage of Miami homebuyers (about 13% in 2021) don’t live in the U.S. and may evaluate risk differently, seeing Miami properties as safer investments than they have at home or as future second homes.
Climate change is, without question, a risk for Miami. The insurance industry warns that sea-level rise and moderate flooding of up to a foot will affect 48% of total properties in oceanfront Miami-Dade County by 2050.
Homebuyers should be more concerned than they are. Rather than a shift motivated by climate change, what we’re seeing in Miami is a continuation of the usual rational investment decisions.
Developers are using the concept of climate risk to win over public officials and future residents to facilitate urban redevelopment. But, in the end, it’s a story of gentrification, not climate gentrification.
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